Construction machinery leasing companies should be vigilant against "black swan event".
Although China's high altitude operating platform market has entered a sustained and long-term growth period, it still faces a sudden short time demand from the market end, policy end, or abrupt cliffs demand, as Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a famous financial scholar, in his book, "black swan" There is a "black swan incident" in the market. Black Swan refers to an unpredictable and important rare event. It changes everything unexpectedly, but people always turn a blind eye to it and use their own limited life experience and a bad faith to explain the unexpected great impact. The reality is defeated.
First of all, from the current point of view, the powerful implementation of large government conferences, activities and environmental policies is a "black swan" in the leasing industry. For example, the "SCO Qingdao summit", which had just ended in Qingdao in June, has announced a clear shutdown order in May, affecting a substantial decline in the rental rate of the Qingdao rental market. It is understood that the rental rate of the high altitude operating platform in Qingdao in May fell to at least 50%. Not only are the sales and rentals of high altitude platform products, including excavators, loaders and so on, all greatly affected.
However, the lease and sales are different, the rental of equipment is the time, the time is past is the past, is irreparable, the rental rate in the last few months can work hard to improve, but it is impossible to completely make up, and excessive use of equipment itself is not reasonable. And the monthly repayment of the Bank or Finance Company needs to be repaid on time, which results in a significant decline in the rate of return on equipment investment in the month or even a period of the year.
In fact, some major events are not prejudged. Most of the large activities and meetings of the government level are released in advance for a long time. Many big events have seen news, but they are "blind", but they do not think about how to avoid and deal with it, so the rentals have been greatly affected. In fact, we have to do so. A good thing is to reduce the decline in Rentals: enhance the "sensitivity of policy and business association", care for major government - level activities and environmental policies, and consciously plan layout operations ahead of time.
In the second half of this year and next year, major events that have been scheduled or expected to be held include, but are not limited to, the following:
5~10 November 2018, Shanghai. The first "China International Import fair" will be held at the National Convention and Exhibition Center. This is an important measure announced by President Xi Jinping on May 2017 at the Forum on international cooperation along the road.
In 2018 (usually in December), the fifth World Internet Conference was held in Wuzhen, Zhejiang (one from the world Internet Conference, President Xi Jinping received a greeting to the scene) .
In May 2019, the International Conference on Microelement biogeochemistry (ICOBTE) was held in Nanjing. This is a medium scale international conference. It enjoys a high reputation in the international academic community. It is held every two years, and the number of participants is expected to exceed 600 people.
In 2019 8~9, Shanxi held the second National Youth Games.
On ~27 October 18, 2019, the "world military games" was held in Wuhan for the first time in China. It will be the largest and most contestant sports meeting in the history of the world military games.
Under the implementation of the environmental protection policy against air pollution, in January 15th of November 15~, Beijing and its surrounding areas are expected to continue the 4 month winter heating season stoppage requirement.
Sports events, such as sports events, generally have the construction and maintenance of the work in the early stage. It is a good thing for the engineering machinery products such as high altitude operation platform, but the lease business of 1~2 months should be affected at least after the period of the event. The leasing business with the above regional leasing business should be prepared ahead of schedule.
If the main business area of the leasing company is the focus area of environmental protection and the hot area of activity, it happens to catch up with two activities a year, so the business of one year leasing company is really worrying.
However, if a change in the leasing business is made to the possible unaltered shutdown in advance, the loss can be reduced, for example: the shutdown requires no outdoor operations. Whether we consciously develop some indoor types of business at that stage, understand the shutdown area according to the past habits, and develop the shutdown purposefully. The surrounding unregulated areas can compensate for the loss of policy stoppage.
China has become the second largest economy in the world, and it is becoming more and more important on the world stage. In addition, it means that there will be more and more domestic and international conferences and major exchanges. In addition to the hot cities such as Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Shanghai, the two or three line cities are gradually showing their charm to the world, especially by the classics. The two or three developed cities in the developed areas will have more activities in the future.
Lease, is by daily, weekly, monthly revenue, unlike sales is a one-time sale, make a one-time big profit, so try to improve every device every day, every week, every month rentals, can get enough business income, get better return on investment!
Secondly, the development trend of the upstream industry, such as the electronic industry, the smart phone (LCD panel manufacturing), the new energy vehicle, the high-end logistics, the shipbuilding industry and so on, will also lead to the sudden change in the downstream industry.
As we all know, large projects of aerial work platforms basically come from the factory building of the above industries. At present, China's high-end manufacturing industry is more connected with the international market, so the policy changes in this area are changing very fast. For example, the "Zhongxing incident" and the "Sino American trade war" these sudden incidents will quickly affect domestic related industries and industries .
We have issued an article on the public number of "equipment leasing research", "what is driving the rapid development of the high altitude operating platform market in China". It is discussed why the sale of high altitude operating platform in 2015 has been outburst, which is directly related to the rapid increase of the base construction of the LCD panel manufacturing enterprises in that year. So, the most talked about year is Samsung.